Bullish on U.S. stocks? This chart’s for you

It’s all eyes on the Fed today, but excitement junkies may have to look for thrills elsewhere.

There is nearly a 100% chance of a first-ever September hike from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, if market forecasting is to be believed. That means what he says about the near-term future may draw much more attention and accordingly, history shows we could be in for a bit of volatility in the coming days.

So far, the market looks to be taking the Fed buildup in stride. After all, investors have the wind at their back in the form of the one of the longest bull markets ever.

That’s just one of the big factors that make it hard to see the good times ever ending.

Our chart of the day, from Macrobond, is one for the bulls as it shows just how much of a solid bet U.S. stock have been so far this year, blowing every other asset out of the water.

Here’s their year-to-date chart:


It is a bit less dramatic when stripping out the first few weeks of January, which were pretty volatile, but the Macrobond chart still paints a pretty picture for the bulls:


Are some investors jittery? Sure. Data from ETF.com showed investors dumped a net $4.2 billion into U.S.-listed ETFs during the past week, with more than half of that destined for bond strategies. The iShares iBoxx USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF

LQD, +0.00%

 pulled in $756 million—the biggest asset gatherer of the week.

Opinion: Beat the S&P 500 over the long run by favoring equal-weighted ETFs

Blogging for Real Investment Advice, Lance Roberts says he has been getting flak lately for complacency over his bullish bias. For now, he says, the market is rising and investors need to stay invested, though he doesn’t think we are in the “next great leg” of a bull market.

“The one thing about bullish sentiment is that it begets more bullish sentiment,” writes Roberts. “This cycle can, does, and will last longer, and go farther, than logic would dictate.”

The market


YMZ8, +0.10%

S&P 500

ESZ8, +0.15%

 and Nasdaq

NQZ8, +0.16%

 futures are moving up modestly. That is after Tuesday proved another loser for the S&P

SPX, -0.13%

 and Dow

DJIA, -0.26%

The Nasdaq

COMP, +0.18%

 held up.

No big moves for gold

GCU8, +0.23%

or the dollar

DXY, +0.21%

but crude


is inching back ahead of supply data and after POTUS doubled down on a call for prices to drop.

Check out the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.

Stocks have been treading water in Europe

SXXP, -0.03%

but in Asia, the Shanghai Composite

SHCOMP, +0.92%

 jumped after global index provider MSCI said it may quadruple the weight of Chinese big-caps and include some shares listed on Shenzhen’s startup exchange ChiNext

399102, +0.78%

The economy

It is the big day. A Fed announcement is coming at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by a presser with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. Ahead of that, we’ll get new home sales at 10 a.m.

The call


NKE, +0.62%

 beat forecasts in earnings that came out late Tuesday, but the bar may have been set too high for the company that has been scoring major points with most consumers and especially markets over its controversial Colin Kaepernick social justice ad. Shares are taking a hit post-earnings, but our call of the day from analysts at SIG Susquehanna urges investors to look past any disappointment and just buy it.

“A robust new product pipeline and more focused marketing strategy is just beginning to ramp up already healthy revenue and margin growth across categories and geographies,” SIG Susquehanna’s Sam Poser and Will Gaertner, in a fresh note to clients.

They say North America is the story for Nike, as sales rose 5.6% in the region, beating a forecast rise of 4.2%. And digital revenues, largely neutral went it comes to any foreign exchange headwinds, rose 36%. SIG added that while Nike is known for its footwear, keep an eye on apparel as it will present a “much larger growth opportunity.”

The buzz

Canada’s biggest province will unveil a new law this week to define who can enter the cannabis market and where they can sell it, sources tell MarketWatch. Stocks in the sector had another upbeat day on Tuesday, led by Aurora Cannabis

ACBFF, +3.65%

which is looking more like the Berkshire Hathaway of pot.

Read: Supreme Cannabis in $9.3 million supply deal with Tilray

An ECB report says the U.S. economy could take a 2% hit in the first year of an all-out trade war, as China and other rivals would go the other way.


SAN, +0.36%

SAN, +0.95%

 has poached UBS’s head of investment banking Andrea Orcel to be its new CEO. Staying in Europe, some buzz about


TWTR, +1.78%

says a problem at its end led to images in old tweets from the Chicago Cubs and others sports franchises changing to porn.

Random reads

Teen in Indonesia survives 49 days adrift at sea.

Just outside of London, some unusual whale-watching is under way

Mexican authorities seize control of Acapulco’s police force.

This Fortnite dance challenge with arguably the biggest boy band on the planet and Jimmy Kimmel is kind of everything.

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